United Airlines Slashing Annual Profit Forecast as Surging Fuel Costs Offset Strong Travel Demand

United Airlines has significantly slashed its profit forecast for the year as relentless spikes in fuel costs continue to bite into the carrier’s bottom line, even as resilient passengers keep booking flights despite a notable jump in overall airfares.

The major U.S. carrier announced on Tuesday that it now expects to earn between 50 cents and $1.50 per share on an adjusted basis during the fourth quarter. This projection falls well below the $1.76 per share that Wall Street analysts had been anticipating. Taking the high end of that newly revised range, United’s total adjusted earnings for the full year of 2026 will reach no more than $7.22 per share. This represents a substantial downgrade from mid-July, when the airline had boldly told investors and financial markets that it was expecting full-year earnings to land between $9 and $11 a share.

The primary culprit behind this downward revision is the soaring price of jet fuel. The carrier now expects to pay an average of $4.80 a gallon for fuel in the fourth quarter, marking a steep climb from the average price of $3.90 a gallon it experienced during the third quarter.

Addressing the financial squeeze, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told CNBC’s Phil LeBeau on Wednesday that the carrier is currently passing along about 72% of the massive oil price surge directly to consumers through higher ticket prices. However, Kirby made it clear that he ultimately wants that pass-through number to climb much closer to 100% as the industry navigates the high-cost operating environment.

A sharp surge in fuel prices throughout the year has added billions of dollars in unexpected expenses to airline balance sheets across the entire aviation sector. These mounting operational costs have eaten steadily into corporate profits, even in the face of remarkably strong consumer demand, and have served as the fundamental driver behind climbing airfares nationwide.

Despite these growing financial headwinds, United’s underlying business showed considerable strength during the critical summer travel period that ended on September 30. The airline reported a third-quarter net income that rose 8.5% compared to the same period a year earlier, reaching $1.03 billion, or $3.14 a share. During the corresponding period last year, United’s net income totaled $949 million, or $2.90 a share. When adjusting for one-time, non-recurring items, the airline reported an adjusted net income of $833 million, or $2.54 a share, for the recent third quarter.

"Our employees met the challenge of our ever-changing environment and our results prove the resilience of focusing on building a brand-loyal airline for customers," CEO Scott Kirby said in an official earnings release detailing the quarterly performance.

That resilience was heavily tested by the sheer magnitude of the airline’s energy expenses. United’s total fuel bill climbed by close to 62% during the third quarter compared to the same period a year earlier, mounting to a staggering $4.84 billion.

Fuel costs were not the only figure heading upward for the airline. Total revenue for the three months that ended on September 30 rose by 17.4% from a year earlier, hitting $17.88 billion, compared with $15.23 billion during the previous year. This revenue expansion was propelled in large part by higher pricing power across both domestic and international networks.

Breaking down the operational metrics, United’s domestic passenger unit revenue rose by 14.5% from a year earlier, while international unit revenue jumped by 17.4%. Both figures serve as a clear indication of higher fares being successfully levied across the carrier’s route map. Crucially, higher prices have not deterred flyers from taking to the skies. United noted that passengers continue to book flights at a healthy pace, with overall passenger counts rising by more than 2% compared to the same time last year.