U.S. Commercial Property and Auto See Cooling Renewal Rates as Workers’ Compensation Bucks the Trend

The landscape of the United States commercial insurance market is undergoing a notable shift, with average premium renewal rates generally rising across most major lines of business, while continuing to cool compared to previous months and quarters. According to the latest findings from the Ivans Index, released by Chicago-based insurance data provider Ivans, workers’ compensation remains the sole major commercial line defying the broader upward trajectory by experiencing year-over-year declines in average premium renewals.

The comprehensive findings draw on an immense pool of insurance data, encompassing more than 120 million insurance transactions across the United States marketplace. This extensive sample size includes active participation from more than 38,000 independent insurance agencies alongside roughly 700 insurance carriers and managing general agents, giving industry analysts a robust window into nationwide pricing trends.

For the month of October, the Ivans Index revealed that major commercial lines—specifically commercial auto, business owners policy, general liability, commercial property, and umbrella coverage—all experienced positive average premium renewal rates. However, in a signal that rate momentum may be stabilizing or decelerating, the increases recorded in October were notably less than those observed during the prior month. This deceleration aligns with broader quarterly trends indicating a cooling pricing environment across several key sectors of the commercial insurance economy.

A closer examination of the third-quarter results for 2026 highlights a persistent downward trend in the velocity of rate increases. Across nearly all major lines of business, the average premium renewal rate change decreased during the third quarter when compared directly with the second quarter of the same year. The only notable exception to this widespread quarterly slowdown was workers’ compensation, which managed to register a slight increase relative to the prior quarter, maintaining its unique position within the broader pricing cycle.

The cooling trend is particularly visible in commercial auto, a line of business that has faced severe pricing pressure and profitability challenges in recent years due to rising vehicle repair costs, higher medical expenses, and an increase in severe litigation outcomes known as social inflation. According to data provided by Applied Systems’ Ivans, the average premium renewal rate for commercial auto stood at 3.63 percent during the third quarter of 2026. This figure represents a noticeable decrease compared to the second quarter of 2026, when the average premium renewal rate reached 4.93 percent.

Furthermore, commercial auto rate increases at renewal have been on a consistent downward trajectory since April 2026, reflecting a significant moderation from the sharper hikes seen in the past. To put this current environment into historical perspective, commercial auto rate renewals averaged a much higher 7.6 percent during the third quarter of 2025, underscoring how much the pace of rate acceleration has softened over the span of a single year.

A similar cooling pattern has emerged within commercial property insurance, a sector that has endured immense strain driven by escalating catastrophe losses, severe weather events, and skyrocketing costs for building materials and labor. Despite these ongoing macro pressures, the average premium renewal rate change for commercial property experienced a measurable decrease during the third quarter of 2026, registering at 5.65 percent. This is down from the 6.40 percent average recorded in the second quarter of 2026. Looking further back, the deceleration becomes even more pronounced; commercial property rates were up by a steeper 7.64 percent during the third quarter of 2025.

Industry observers note that while insurance buyers continue to face rising premiums across the majority of commercial lines, the rate of these increases is clearly moderating from the aggressive spikes characteristic of the recent hard market cycle. As carriers, agencies, and policyholders navigate the remainder of the year, market participants will continue to monitor the Ivans Index data to gauge whether these cooling trends will persist into the upcoming quarters or if new market pressures will alter the pricing trajectory across the U.S. commercial insurance sector.